Will Jagan serve a surprise punch?

The ruling Congress seems to be confident of getting through the no-confidence motion today without much of a hitch. Despite all the jockeying by various parties, the numbers still seem to favour Kiran Kumar Reddy government.

The ruling combine commands 162 MLAs on its side, while the opposition could muster only 124 MLAs as of now. The PRP threat passed off as a storm in a cup and the less than convincing attempt of TRS to provoke T Congress MLAs to vote against the government failed miserably.
The MIM, after the understanding reached over Hyderabad Mayor post, is all set to support the government.
Jagan is still making last ditch efforts to throw a surprise by continually talking to his group MLAs, many of whom have already declared their vote to the Congress Party. His reported attempts at luring some T Congress MLAs yielded little result.
While Kiran’s government is under no threat of losing on the floor, the no-confidence is still generating lot of interest because of any unexpected developments in the Jagan camp. Even if a few Jagan MLAs vote for the motion, it would indeed trigger important political developments in the state, as by-polls would be necessitated, and Jagan’s YSR Congress will have an opportunity to prove its mettle in the electoral arena.
It is also to be seen who Lok Satta Jayaprakash Narayan, Associate Member Somarapu Satyanarayana (issued a Congress whip and Sobha Nagireddy (earlier PRP and now a Jagan loyalist) will vote for.

Congress, TDP, TRS whip MLAs

The ruling Congress and the opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) Sunday issued whips to their legislators on the opposition's no-confidence motion in the assembly.
While Congress directed all its 153 members in the 295-member house to vote against the TDP's no-confidence motion, the main opposition party asked its 86 legislators to back the motion when it comes up for voting Monday. TRS also asked all its 12 MLAs to be present in the house and vote for the motion.
Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) has not yet issued a whip to its lawmakers, keeping the Congress on its toes amid continuing uncertainty over the fate of the no-confidence motion.
PRP chief K. Chiranjeevi Sunday met 17 legislators of his party, who openly voiced unhappiness over being sidelined by the Congress even after the merger.
Since PRP remains a separate block in the assembly pending disposal of a petition in court by a PRP legislator challenging the merger, Chiranjeevi will have to issue a whip to ensure that all the legislators vote against the motion.
Unhappy over the delay in accommodating them in the state cabinet and other posts, the PRP MLAs are mounting pressure for their pound of flesh to bail-out the government.
Chiranjeevi briefed the MLAs about the assurance given by central Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad to him last night. However, the meeting could not take a decision on issuing a whip as some leaders wanted that they be allowed to vote according to their conscience.
Meanwhile, YSR Congress party chief Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy is holding a crucial meeting with Congress legislators loyal to him to take a final decision on his strategy. Twenty-one legislators, who met him Saturday, said they were ready to vote against the government and face by-elections if they were disqualified for violating party whip.
Two other loyalists opposed Jagan's decision to vote against the government and walked out of Saturday's meeting.
As many as 26 Congress rebels had switched loyalties to Jagan in August but some of them have since returned to the party fold.
Congress leaders including ministers met some of Jagan loyalists and handed them the party whip.
The ruling party is confident of defeating the motion with the support of PRP and its ally Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), which has seven members.
PRP has 18 members in assembly but one of them Shoba Nagi Reddy is sailing with Jagan.
As there are seven vacancies in 295-member house (including a nominated member), Congress needs 144 votes to defeat the motion. The ruling party is sure of garnering 157 votes even if 21 rebels vote against it.
The parties which are in support of motion include CPI (4), BJP (2), CPI-M, Lok Satta and YSR Congress one each and one independent.